The "14th Five-Year Plan" of the automobile industry: the share of new energy will exceed 20%

This year is the first year of Chinese "14th Five-Year Plan", and the industry generally believes that the "14th Five-Year Plan" is a key window period for the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry. However, the current auto industry is facing the pressure of transformation and upgrading on the one hand, and the vigorous rise of entrants has brought a challenge to traditional car companies.

Shengji Ye, chief engineer and deputy secretary-general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that "the auto industry has entered the second half of the period marked by intelligent networked vehicles, and the 14th Five-Year Plan is a key window period for Chinese auto industry to transform and upgrade and become a powerful auto country. But at the same time, we must clearly realize the problem that the industry is big but not strong still exists, and solve the problem of shortcomings." Gang Wan, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, said, "It is necessary to drive by electricity, intelligent network connection, and low carbon. Mobility is a breakthrough, driving the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry, and achieving the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality."

Car companies accelerate the deployment of new energy, calling for the introduction of dual-carbon refinement policies

In September last year, my country officially announced that China's carbon dioxide emissions will strive to peak before 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060; in December last year, the Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated that carbon peaking and carbon neutrality will be achieved in 2021. One of the eight key tasks. In addition, in the "14th Five-Year Plan for China's National Economic and Social Development and the Outline of Vision 2035" released in March this year, energy and the environment are listed as the most important goals.

From the perspective of the automobile industry chain, the carbon emissions of automobiles in the entire life cycle of automobiles account for as high as 30%; therefore, "double carbon" has also become an irreversible development trend of the automobile industry, accelerating the trend of industrial development. Green and low-carbon transformation, and at the same time promote the overall process of the new energy vehicle industry to accelerate significantly. Domestic car companies such as FAW Group, Changan Automobile, SAIC Group, GAC Group and BAIC Group have all made it clear that the development of new energy vehicles will be a key task in the next five years.

Changqing Liu , general manager of the Strategic Management Department of China FAW Group Co., Ltd., said, "Under the 'two-carbon' strategy, car companies will seek new balance points in industrial policy, product structure, and corporate earnings; promote vehicle electrification and increase fuel economy. Vehicle economy, including battery recycling, will become an important way for the auto industry to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the future, and establishing a carbon neutral technology and management system for the full life cycle is an inevitable requirement for enterprise development."

In fact, after the national level clarified the "dual carbon" goal, car companies also responded positively and accelerated the development of new energy vehicles. Changqing Liu said, "FAW Group plans to launch more than 50 new energy vehicles during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, including more than 30 self-owned brands; in 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will account for more than 20%."

BAIC Group chose a multi-line layout of technical routes. Xiyong Zhang, general manager of BAIC Group, said, "BAIC Group will promote the multi-line technical route of 'pure electric, hybrid and hydrogen fuel'. In terms of pure electric, new energy will be used. Based on the high-end brand Jihu, it will penetrate into popular models and differentiated scenarios in the next five years; in terms of hydrogen fuel, Beiqi Foton plans to promote a total of 15,000 hydrogen-fueled commercial vehicles by 2025, and a total of 200,000 by 2030. ."

The idea of SAIC is to strengthen the new-generation electric vehicle platform and focus on solving the pain points of electric vehicles; it plans to put into production a new-generation power battery system by the end of this year. Changan Automobile stated that it will further promote the "Shangri-La" plan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and plans to launch a full range of 26 new smart electric vehicles in the next five years. JAC also stated that it will increase investment in construction and R&D in areas such as intelligence, electrification, and networking. GAC Group has also previously proposed the "GLASS Green and Clean Plan" to systematically promote the green and low-carbon new ecological development of the whole chain.

However, the auto industry has not yet proposed a specific and detailed policy to achieve "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality". Wan Gang proposed that my country should continue to support the development of the automobile industry, maintain policy continuity and stability, and formulate systematic policies to support the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" strategy as soon as possible. Car companies also have related demands. Xiang Xingchu, chairman of Jianghuai Automobile, expressed the hope that relevant departments should clarify and release the specific timetable and requirements for the automobile industry to achieve the "dual carbon goal" as soon as possible; Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, said that although my country is still far from the realization of the "dual carbon" goal. There is a certain time, but car companies still hope that the relevant departments can clarify the phased goals, specific routes and time points for realization.

Most industry insiders believe that detailed policies can better guide car companies to practice in an orderly manner and promote the realization of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals; Far more than subsidies and double points.

The shortcomings of the industrial chain are still obvious, and "strengthening the core and supplementing the chain" is a key topic

At present, the global automobile industry chain, including the Chinese automobile market, is at a critical point in the transformation and upgrading to smart electric vehicles. Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, believes that "the auto industry has entered the second half of the period marked by intelligent connected vehicles. my country's auto industry needs to build a Chinese standard intelligent connected vehicle system, and must master the key core technologies in their own hands. "

According to the data of the China Automotive Chip Industry Innovation Strategic Alliance, in 2019, the scale of China's independent automotive chip industry accounted for only 4.5% of the world's total, and the self-research rate of automotive chips in the domestic automotive industry accounted for only 10%, while the import rate of China's automotive chips exceeded 90%. According to the "White Paper on China's New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain 2020" released by consulting firm Roland Berger, among the top 20 in the global automotive semiconductor industry, Chinese mainland company Nexperia only occupies one seat.

The chip shortage crisis that broke out in the second half of last year has continued to this day, and it has become a "stuck neck" technology that restricts the development of my country's automobile industry. Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said, "Affected by the shortage of chips in the second quarter of this year, the production capacity of car companies may be reduced by about 10% compared with the original plan, and the impact on sales in the first half of this year should be within 10%." However, Xu Haidong et al. Industry insiders believe that the chip shortage is a short-term phenomenon, which is expected to ease from the third quarter of this year and be resolved within a year.

However, the industry believes that this chip shortage crisis also provides a new opportunity for the development of domestic chips; Miao Wei believes that after the chip shortage crisis, my country's auto industry needs to establish an autonomous and controllable automotive-grade chip industry system. Su Linlin, vice president of Ziguang National Emblem, believes that domestic chips have gradually embarked on the road of independent control, and the slow development will contribute to the stable supply of domestic automotive chips. It is understood that at present, some models of Li Auto, Chery Auto, SAIC-GM-Wuling and other models have been equipped with the Horizon chip.

In addition to the shortage of chips, the rising prices of raw materials this year have also affected the development of the auto industry to a certain extent. "In the past, raw material prices have also risen, but the automotive industry chain is relatively long. Enterprises can absorb the impact of rising raw material prices by reducing costs layer by layer in the industrial chain, which will not affect the prices of end products." Deputy Secretary General of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers Shi Jianhua told the Beijing News Shell Finance reporter, "But the price of raw materials has risen too high this year, which makes it difficult for upstream parts companies. At the same time, car companies also need to continuously meet consumers' demands for consumption upgrades and cost-effectiveness, and it is difficult to increase car prices. In this case, we can only adjust the product direction and find ways to reduce costs, but it is difficult to rule out whether it will have the same knock-on effect as the chip shortage.”

Since 2009, my country's auto market has ranked first in the world in terms of sales for 12 consecutive years, and my country's auto industry has also shown a state of rapid development; however, Ye Shengji believes that it is necessary to clearly recognize the problem that the auto industry is large but not strong. There are, in addition to the obvious shortcomings of the industrial chain such as chip shortages and the weak core technology innovation ability, there are also problems such as insufficient competitiveness of independent brands and weak ability to allocate factor resources for development.

Self-owned brands continue to rise, 2025 production and sales aim at 30 million vehicles

For independent brands, in addition to accelerating the layout of electrification, the more important task is to develop the brand to high-end. For example, Dongfeng Company plans to increase its weight to develop a new high-end brand Lantu, BAIC Group also said that it will promote the development of Jihu Automobile, Geely Automobile has launched the Extreme Krypton brand, SAIC Group has launched Zhiji Automobile, and BYD is also deploying high-end brands. Ye Shengji said that through efforts during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, world-class leading companies and related well-known brands will emerge by 2025, and 1-2 auto companies will enter the top ten in the world.

It is generally seen in the industry that for independent brands, brand improvement is the only way, but the core is to truly achieve value for money based on existing products and capabilities. Shi Jianhua believes that the high-end layout of car companies can further reflect the value of the company and the recognition of the market, and obtain better benefits; but depending on their technical strength and level, the more important thing is to ensure the quality of the products.

At the same time, the industry believes that the accelerated development of self-owned brand new energy vehicles and intelligent networking also provides opportunities for self-owned brands to develop upward. In terms of sales performance, as of May this year, the number of new energy vehicles in my country is about 5.8 million, accounting for 50% of the total global new energy vehicles; my country's new energy vehicle market penetration has increased from 5.4% in 2020 to 8.7% .

Shengji Ye predicts that by 2025, the conservative market share of new energy vehicles in my country will exceed 20%, and the optimistic expectation will be close to 30%. Entering a period of high-quality development, it is preliminarily predicted that by 2025, China's automobile production and sales will exceed or achieve 30 million vehicles. Not only that, Ye Shengji further stated that by 2025, a Chinese standard smart car system will basically be formed, and a complete system such as technological innovation, industrial ecology, infrastructure, laws and regulations, product supervision and network security will basically be formed.